As the fall air begins to crisp, most people in Indiana are preparing for whatever this winter holds. News organizations here and across the nation offer their predictions for this upcoming winter. However, “uncertain” forecasts often leave viewers wondering what kind of weather to truly expect. With the numerous forecasts available at the moment, it’s clear Indiana is in for some mixed weather predictions this winter. But, what are these predictions? And, what do people really desire out of this winter?
In Elkhart, this upcoming winter is supposed to bring on the triple threat: “Cold, Wet, and White.” According to The Old Farmer’s Almanac, “Winter will be warmer than normal in the east and colder than normal in the west.” What does that mean for this region? “Precipitation will be below normal in the Lower Lakes region this winter. Snowfall will also be below average, with the most snow in late December, from late January into early February, and from late February into early March.” So far, Old Farmer’s has been surprisingly accurate since it began in 1792–using a “unique, proprietary method of predicting weather.”
Junior at Elkhart High School and aspiring meteorologist Ian Kelly has his own method for predicting the weather: “I’m going to mainly look at fall. This past fall was the third warmest on record, and the warmest since 1963,” he asserts. “The amount of precipitation was almost two inches below average, because there were drought conditions persisting throughout September and October.” Claiming that because of the drought in these previous months, Elkhartans can expect colder temperatures and snowier conditions.
From another scientific approach, the National Weather Service (NOAA) asserts that the La Niña conditions this year could contribute to colder temperatures in most of the Great Lakes region, including Indiana. La Niña is Spanish for “little girl,” and the term when it comes to weather originates from fishermen in South America noticing a weather pattern when the Pacific Ocean was colder than usual. This translates into Elkhart possibly seeing more snow than usual or long stretches of frigid weather conditions. This type of weather could even lead to snowstorms and consistent sub-zero temperatures; so, it is important to prepare.
As Elkhart moves into the colder months, its residents are going to have to face the forecast that calls for a colder and snowier winter. While The Old Farmer’s Almanac and NOAA are predicting extreme weather conditions this winter, there is still hope for a manageable season. By staying informed and prepared, Elkhart’s citizens can make the most of it, no matter what Old Man Winter delivers.
